https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5g25mrcevo
Gary and Pedestrian,
(from previous thread)
I’m gonna have to thank both of you guys again, this time thanks for the insistence on those trendlines which are fated to be broken.
You think you’re arguing, but you’re not even arguing. Being an Economist (on the one hand… on the other hand…), I play out BOTH of your “arguments” SIMULTANEOUSLY in my mind, but in the ABSENCE of attack and defend strategies, which are interpersonal and largely ignored by the market.
(Hint: The power of paradox!… close kin to intuition.)
(Hint: The power of paradox!… close kin to intuition.)
SUPERCYCLE degree bear market: 2011 until sometime in the mid-2020s. BEAR market still in progress.
CYCLE degree bear market: 2011-2015. Past bear market, one degree smaller than the above.
CYCLE degree rally: 2015 until around 2019 or 2020. RALLY still in progress. Likely triangle or some sort of flat correction (multi-year consolidation).
CYCLE degree final bear: 2019/20 until sometime in the mid-2020s. Future bear market, within an even larger bear market — scary — think 2013!
CYCLE degree rally: 2015 until around 2019 or 2020. RALLY still in progress. Likely triangle or some sort of flat correction (multi-year consolidation).
CYCLE degree final bear: 2019/20 until sometime in the mid-2020s. Future bear market, within an even larger bear market — scary — think 2013!
At any rate, you’ve caused me to re-evaluate my settings for analysis at the cycle degree of trend, such that all key inflection points make mathematical sense: April & June, 2013; March, July, and December, 2015; July, 2016.
Of course, in that context the December, 2016, low does NOT make sense. That’s because it’s one degree lower. The PRIMARY (Yearly) move down since July, 2016 appears as an INCOMPLETE double zig zag.
PRIMARY wave B target using new settings: Around 1075-80, for now, though I don’t see it changing too much in the coming months.
- Zkot, I was not wondering at all.My post was pointing out how the moving averages are calculated. So what happened 200 weeks ago plus what the weekly close of 199 weeks ago plus that of 198 weeks ago are all embodied in the current MA price line. Moving averages cannot be forward looking when they are factually based on past activity. That is why golden crosses and death crosses are such useless tools for reading charts. They do however come in handy for creating support and resistance lines but even that is only because of the weight accorded them by so many investors and how the algo’s get programmed. You should never use them for forecasting though.
For Ped-Here is the updated chart with the lower trend line drawn. I was originally curious to see what the top line would show and just drew parallel lines to form a channel, however, the lower line drawn the way you suggested does make a strong point. Whether one agrees or not with this chart which has five points on the top line and four on the bottom, the trend is down until the top resistance line is broken. That is a fact.
- Yes it is KHT, the trend is unconditionally down until further notice.
Thanks again for creating the chart to help us out today.What we are looking at with your redraw is a classic falling wedge pattern. It is a VERY easy chart to read and makes the outcome for gold and the mining sector quite predictable even if we cannot precisely time the coming breakout using that pattern.Take a look at this article with charts I have linked below and you will see the beautiful similarity of the gold bear market chart and the classic falling wedge pattern. I think this is conclusive and ends the debate on the topic but of course the fanatics and zealots in the room can never be persuaded no matter what evidence is provided.———————————–
Falling Wedge Pattern (reversal). Lets not complicate this people!!! Gold is EASY to read if you stay objective.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal
———————————–When viewed this way we do not need to make many assumptions about the future, where cycles should start or end or how it relates to the CRB Index. This chart is what it is. We will just have to let the bear play out until the chart finds its bottom and then plan for the bounce that inevitably will come.We have NOT had the bull market breakout or bounce yet though!….. Not a damned chance in a hundred.We have ONLY seen a bear market rally in 2016 that was repelled perfectly at its channel resistance. And then to seal the case, gold was again repelled at resistance in 2017 for confirmation. There is no longer any doubt about the pattern in play here and we should now anticipate that price will fall back to its lower channel line.And yes, that is really bad news if you are a bull but I don’t make the rules so this is not just my opinion you are hearing. The chart set-up is damning. It is without question extremely bearish right now. So we should not fool ourselves into believing any nonsense about this being a bull market unless we are prepared to accept considerable losses playing this thing as something it is not.If you go Old Turkey on this bear you are going to be roasted, basted and fried black before its all over.You could even go broke, so be very careful who you listen too.I keep telling the crowd here that the correct way to play this kind of market is to sell on strength and sell every rally. You NEVER hold anything too long during a decline but rather play the support and resistance lines strategically to benefit from the predictable rise and fall of prices within the declining pattern. You don’t need to be a genius to do it either.It is not a complex strategy and it is not difficult to execute if you are careful.For example, I am 100% out of the metals market at this time since I am not sure how low prices will fall before bottoming. But I am prepared to re-enter in force as soon as I can determine a solid entry and then play the next bounce for all its worth. What I am NOT DOING is trying to buy miners just because they look cheap.Things that are down can always fall lower during a bear and it is a rare person who is able to know where those bottoms lie as they are part of the future unknown. My advice (especially to the novices in the room for whom I am really writing) is to take care heeding what the bull crowd keeps repeating and to just concentrate on the simple obvious truth of the pattern you are looking at.And don’t ever be sucked into complicated ideas of why gold should do this or the other thing because those rationalizations will only lead to losses. If you see an easy trade pattern in development then just work with it instead of fighting the trend.This multi-year bear market in gold offers us an easy path to superb milk-fattened profits if we just allow ourselves to understand the dynamics that are in play and to be patient and plan accordingly. Now is the time to raise cash by strategically investing for short term gains so that when the real bull begins we are well fortified to invest heavily at the real bottom.And be sure to set aside the ideas that gold MUST have hit bottom already because of an 8 year or a 7 year cycle. For anyone not paying attention, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stock market bull that is destined to be the longest in the history of the stock market.By definition that means the gold bear market is going to be stretched for as long as it takes the equity bull to bubble and perk and blow its top. I don’t know when the DOW will finally have its Waterloo and neither does anyone else but what I do know is that metals cannot perform well as long as it persists. You younger gold investors need to hear this alternate viewpoint so at least you can make an informed decision about your trades.The gold chart says prices are going to fall lower…………… A LOT LOWER.
The chart of the falling wedge pattern under discussion leaves very little room for doubt.
So if you don’t know what you are doing I advise you to just stay the hell out of this market until it hits bottom. - An alternate chart.
one time frame enters all past, present, and future.