THE ELECTION TRIGGER APPEARS TO HAVE FAILED TO COMPLETE A DAILY CYCLE LOW [archieve]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODbCJP2xmtc
Pedestrian
The only satisfaction I get from reading your foolish daily comments is that I know you were heavily long miners all through this decline and are nursing heavy losses. Because it is a bear market. You will learn that better by reading your monthly statements.
Pedestrian
Yup, and as far as higher-highs and higher-lows on the mining charts, well that was already busted in the past few days if the GDX daily chart is our guide. We now have a situation where the May lows have dropped below the March lows and the pattern for the year is a rather common double-top where the April high was unable to exceed the February high. This has trouble written all over it and is most assuredly not bullish unless our idea of bullish is for GDX to retest the December lows.
(at which point we might hope for a decent rally).
GDXJ meanwhile has suffered a category 4 hurricane decline and looks to be strongly attracted to its December 2016 lows at this time. A break below that key support and its look out below boys!
We are just waiting for the HUI to follow and also fail when reaching its March lows to put that really bearish icing on the cake for the whole precious metals mining sector. That can’t be too far off if the yen/$ keeps falling.
Nikkei meanwhile has hit 20,000 btw (futures) so lets see if that will be repulsed down from resistance or just be a pit stop before new highs are made. This is the only thing that matters right now. If Japanese indices don’t stop going up its going to be an ugly, ugly summer for everyone in metals.
There’s nothing unusual about that. That’s what happens during an intermediate cycle decline. At least one daily cycle will make a lower low. Stair stepping down so to speak.
Unless gold breaks below the larger yearly cycle low (December) there is no indication that this is anything other than a basing pattern in a larger bull market.
As I’ve said over and over, until the stock market bubble pops it’s going to be hard for the metals to gain a lot of traction. While there is free money to be had in stocks there isn’t going to be a lot of motivation to buy gold. So it’s going to stay stuck in the basing pattern for awhile. Maybe the rest of the year.
There is not one chance in a hundred this is a bull market in precious metals or mining stock. I think almost every person who comes to this site will attest to that after reviewing their own broker statements. During a real bear market (like we have) even the pros get caught and lose money sometimes. That is happening right now.
But during a genuine bull though even retards and monkeys with darts make profit when all boats float at once.
We are not there yet.
GaryPost author
Just a basing patten. Nothi g unusual about that.
Pedestrian
Well if a basing pattern destroys your account then we need a new word for what is happening since splitting hairs over what to call this market is hardly doing justice to what it means in the real world where the HUI sports what looks like a great big, fat double-top for the first five months of this year suggesting its going all the way back to its lows.
That’s hardly a bullish liftoff.
In a *real* bull market you can hold and not worry. Do you have that confidence after all the recent declines? Of course not. Even you are saying to stay out of the metals market and wait if you are unable to trade the short side.
And look at the poor saps who bought JNUG as it has plummeted some 70% this year, been share-split and then kept on falling! You have got to stop calling this a bull market since it leads people to believe those devastated positions will be rescued in a bounce.
They will NEVER be rescued though. Not after a reverse share split.
GaryPost author
Miners are a long way above the 2015 low. It’s still a bull market.
Like I said, it’s going to take time to turn the 200 week moving average back up.
Pedestrian
Is the price of 200 weeks ago important? How about the price 199 weeks ago and that of 198 weeks ago? What I am saying is that its historical prices that are moving the MA’s today and if metals keep falling then the 200 week MA will just keep falling too (not get pushed anywhere). So it is not just time that matters. It is time AND price. Gold must rise or the MA isn’t going anywhere favourable.
That indicator is worthless for reading the future.
dboz
Sounds good. If we can never go up with lots of bulls, how is it ever going to be possible to go up without them? I have to realize that we are in a bear market in PMs.
Having seen crytocurrencies get flooded with 80 billion dollars in a month, its more than likely people have simply left the PM sector for greener, non manipulated pastures. Bitcoin is up nearly 1000 out of November 2016. Stays overbought for weeks. Oversold conditions last a few days then right back to overbought. All bulls, no problem going up massively. Gold can barely even get to over bought. Silver struggles to even take a bounce out of oversold.
There is no money in this sector. No reason to believe PMs are bullish. If we have to keep going down and down and down retracing 70% or more each time and then failing to ever get to a new high, really seeing that we are not in a bull. As soon as any gains are made, everyone sells and landslide losses occur.
If you don’t build heading up, you can’t buy the dips, you don’t make higher highs and keep ending up back at the bottom, what is possibly going to allow any upside?
All you are saying is wait for the cellar, play the bounce and then time to bail and wait for another massive down side reset. So yes, traders are doing good. People invested back early in 2016 and have been smashed ruthlessly at every turn. Every dip buy is a loser. Massive loser. We break at every support level.
Just saying, capitulation is nearing. Over a year of losing for many. Losing Bigly. Having to sell long positions and wait for a collapse to rebuy does not sound bullish.
No, No, No……. What Gary has been saying for a while now is gold is in a bottoming pattern/triangle and will bounce around for a while yet. Next downside target I would say is $1178. So yes at the moment gold/miners suck if you are long but that will change at some point, and yes if invested in Tripple ets thas a monumental loss. If bought high near the top it really sucks, but the pattern technicals were saying don’t buy. Emotional trading, gold can only go on up at the top , now it can only go down as it continues falling…. Heres the weekly chart. The good news is the RSI has fallen quite considerably but still got quite a way to go, macd only just crossing and stoch at neutral…
Sounds about right Boss. Speculator longs are indeed soured on the sector and in a selling mood while others are outright capitulating into the ongoing decline. Confidence has been badly hurt and it will take a long while before gold (and especially silver) have a chance to get momentum going again. You will know how bad it is when the next relief rally comes and instead of getting the trend going again just falls flat on its face. That’s your real sentiment indicator.
And platinum is not faring much better. At about 4am this morning it made a waterfall decline for a 15 dollar face-plant off the high board right onto bare cement. We will see if it buries itself a little deeper by going under 900 dollars today. And that’s a great reason to have stayed out of platinum stocks while the correction is still a live event.
Pedestrian
And there we go. The 1220 line on gold was just broken as I suspected would happen today while the yen decline accelerated after losing the .88 level and she is intent on going down for the count. Hard to tell right now at what support it might stop so I will avoid any inclination to buy too early.
Yeah, anther 10 cents decline and silver will have its chops busted all over the roasting pan as 16 dollars gives way to a 15 handle. This has been quite a decline while DSLV has certainly lived up to the potential it had stored as I kept warning not so long ago. It has now risen 50% since its April bottom. I wish I had hung on longer instead of going to cash so early.
So a couple things are happening here today worth mention.
My Nikkei indicator is working thus far meaning it has been repulsed very gently near the 20,000 mark and may be ready for a corrective decline. You need to check this chart for yourself and run the channels to appreciate the idea better. What you are looking at is an expanding wedge, better known as a megaphone, that encompassed the period starting in December 2016. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=d1
If I am correct and the Nikkei begins a corrective decline here then we might reasonably expect it to fall all the way back to around 16,500 before bottoming which is in excess of a 15% decline. That is where the pattern projects to at this time.e
Without a doubt this would be a very bullish setup for a bounce in precious metals and miners so stay alert to the fact that a stock market correction will be very favorable for long trades if a market decline even roughly approximates my downside projection.
My secondary indicator (Eurostoxx50) is also flashing a resistance top and could also be setting up to decline. I like this kind of supporting evidence when it corroborates my general idea. What you should notice is that the Eurostoxx support line (monthly chart) identified by the lows of 2003 and 2009 are in perfect parallel with the current peaks of 2007 and 2017 and that means we have reached the primary resistance level. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=m1
The DAX offers a similar support/resistance channel that you will find by checking tops and bottoms for yourself. Get your handy plastic ruler out and just trace out the lines as a quick test of validity. http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DY&p=m1
As mentioned before, these patterns are not available on the US indices as there are not prior highs to work with. The assumption here though is that if Japanese and European indices decline so will US markets since most developed nations markets are moving together at this time. I don’t know if my idea is going to be valid and therefore can’t suggest what anyone should do about this other than take note and don’t be surprised if we do get an unexpected market decline.
But the main reason I am leaving this post today is simply to warn you we are here NOW.
If a correction ensues its going to get underway shortly so be on guard. Given that precious metals have been sold down hard recently and may also be at a cycle bottom, a reversal of their fortunes in conjunction with a modest stock market correction makes perfect sense. So a good buying opportunity may be presenting itself this week.
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A note to all you Tweet readers who bitch constantly about the length of my posts…..
Any pedant should be able to see the metals are over sold and strong hands are accumulating.
Besides it a full moon tonight, there’s a correlation for you.
The media is reading this Comey firing entirely wrong. Those news people have obviously never known a politician very well and never been in a position to bargain or they are just grasping at straws to rationalize this event as some sort of coverup.
Bullshit!
Let me tell you what REALLY happened (even though I was not there).
Comey was really hated by the Dem’s because he was seen as the key reason Hillary lost. There were very few people in their cross hairs they wanted out of government more. In fact, Mr Comey was enemy number one and Donald knew it which is why he kept him on until now.
But don’t get misty eyed that the Donald has a weak spot or was rooting for the underdog.
Comey was a bargaining chip plain and simple. Trump needed that guy for the right moment to be traded off for something else he needed more. And so when he ran into resistance on an issue (no idea which one) then he offered up Comey’s head to make the deal.
And friends is how you get things done in politics.
Yen/$ is indicating an inside bullish reversal. So gold could be ready to make a move higher. The inside day is not valid until the end of the day naturally (daily chart) but becomes meaningful if its still showing at the close. VIX meanwhile is almost right on its timing target for a monthly move. We shall see what happens if the stars line up.
Looks like a DCL in gold…..which might make sense if the S&P is double topping from March at ~2400. It could be a swing high today if it drops below yesterday’s low and then below the 10 DMA. The question is – will oil continue up with gold?
Where are you on this Alex? I’m thinking you’ll say these are temporary bounces before the final YCL.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=d1
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=m1
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DY&p=m1
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A note to all you Tweet readers who bitch constantly about the length of my posts…..
Besides it a full moon tonight, there’s a correlation for you.