i don`t think we are in a bull market ToTo.
https://invst.ly/3xkpj
- Precisely KHT. I have made the same comment here a hundred times referencing the exact same chart (except I never actually draw the charts since I can’t be bothered). Almost nobody here will listen though. But the upper channel is pretty convincing since it amounts to a 6 year cap on the gold price and every year the price can only be lower since the line is descending. Gold has never once broken to the topside of that upper rail yet. Until it does this is unequivocally a bear and surprises will be to the downside.Since you are a good chart artist maybe you can convince Gary.BTW, I am sure you noticed there is a problem with the bottom rail on your chart diagram. I would have drawn that differently. Gold is actually falling into a narrowing wedge. Try that instead and you will get a better idea of the terminus. But try not to scare anyone. Some people on this site just can’t handle the facts.
- Gary, you really need to look closely at that chart that KHT has made. You have been calling this market a bull since December of 2015 and all that bull market of yours has achieved since then is to confirm the upper channel boundary.This is still a BEAR MARKET for cripes sake!!! All your people need to click on the link above.How can you not see the problem with your analysis when its staring you right in the face so obviously? Don’t you ever wonder why your price and trend expectations are being frustrated again and again? And lastly, what is it going to take before you do a little reassessment of your position?Maybe I should have drawn this chart myself back when I first began talking about it in 2016. At that time, when we failed at resistance I knew gold was doomed for another cycle down and warned everyone here to get out of its way.And I was 100% correct.When we failed at resistance again in April I repeated the warning and just the other day I pointed out that the two peaks in 2016 and 2017 amount to little more than a double top along a falling channel line.In other words, a VERY left translated double top. Not so unlike the pair of peaks that we saw back in 2011 and 2012 and we all know how that turned out when gold crashed in 2013 (its right on the chart man. Just take a look).So forget all that nonsense about higher-highs and higher lows. You are using a shorter term chart that has no perspective. To get the whole picture you need a monthly just as KHT has used and then it all becomes crystal clear.People…..study this chart!
- Maybe you don’t understand.I use different tools than you do. My tools will spot the beginning of a bull market long before yours give you confirmation.Your channels will have a very long lag time before signalling a new bull market.Mine will tell me it’s a new bull market very soon after it has begun, and many months before a channel breakout and you get confirmation.
- Gary, that makes no sense. If that exact same chart above was an hourly (instead of a monthly) and you were a day-trader I can absolutely guarantee you would not be trading it with a bullish bias until it gave a signal that it was breaking out of the channel or marking a clear bottom.Your system does not work because those kinds of systems never work successfully. All you divined by reading sentiment indicators was that the majority were on the wrong side of the trade betting on a new bull market. Most people left their gains on the table and rode that so-called bull right back to the bottom and have been kicking themselves ever since.They saw fantastic profits and then let it all slip away.
- I guess since my system doesn’t work then I was only imagining calling the bottom in Dec. when everyone else was bearish, and all the profits we made from that two month rally are also imaginary.And since my system doesn’t work I guess I was just imagining calling the top almost to the day 3 weeks ago when you were looking for a rally to 1320. And again all the profits we’ve made on the short side are imaginary.There’s more than just sentiment to calling the final bear market low. A bear market low has to occur at a yearly cycle low. One of those occurred in December of 2015. A bear market low also has to occur at an 8 year cycle low (the last one came in 2008). That next one was due between 2015 and 2017 (they can stretch or shrink a bit).The reason I think the 8 YCL low occurred a little early is because the CRB was due for a 3 YCL in 2016 and it’s unlikely that the multi year gold cycle would stretch a year or more past the CRB cycle. So the odds are very high that gold’s 8 YCL occurred in December of 2015.So unless the bear market is going to stretch out another entire 8 year cycle (not likely) then it had to have occurred in December of 2015.There’s more than one way to skin a cat and there’s certainly better ways to call a bear market bottom than waiting months or even years for a channel breakout. That kind of signal has way too much lag to be of much use.
- You know what KHT?You should scare the crap out of the bugs and draw that lower channel on your chart. It projects down to around 825 sometime in 2019 which seems about right to me since that’s about when this exceptional bull market in equities will likely end if you listen to M. Armstrong.Around that time we all need to be the hell out of public debt of all kinds, most real estate and even the stock market since the wheels are going to come off the wagon with an epic sovereign default cycle which will be extraordinarily deflationary.And we should be so thoroughly disenchanted with governments at all levels and disgusted by all the losses we are taking in traditional investments by then that we are ready to hold physical precious metals again as a last resort to all the deprivations, confiscation and heavy taxation.Marty always said the real purpose of gold was in response to the greed of governments and lost confidence in the system. When the real shit-show starts our pensions will be evaporating and everyone unprepared will be forced to live on tiny hand-outs and stipends which will represent the last fragments of our retirement dreams.Banks, insurance and pension companies will all be going tits-up when that happens.When the old Soviet Union collapsed so did all their retirement schemes. Few know about that harsh period in history but the internal defaults against the general public were exceptionally painful. Pension benefits dropped as low as 20 bucks a month and the economy went into a serious depression as the empire simply ran out of money and everything ground to a halt.Nobody believes that will happen in the West. And yet we all accept that the debt burden carried in the developed market countries is equally unsustainable and can never be paid. Well if it can’t be paid then that means just one of two things.Either we enter a depression that is extremely serious as capital withers and asset values plummet or two, we are faced with a period of inflation so extreme that nobody can really tell the difference between that event and an actual depression.Lets be honest, what is really the difference between having a pocket filled with lint instead of cash and one that is bursting to the seams with money you can’t buy a cheap pack of smokes with? Whether inflation or deflation, the feeling is the same….we will all be a lot poorer when the chickens finally come home to roost.On a positive note, real money will have a place again. But sadly it will be during a period of hardship such that most here will hardly be able to enjoy the benefits. So go ahead, draw that lower rail on your chart so everyone can see where we are really heading with gold in the next couple years.And remember, in a bear market surprise are to the downside!
- This one you mean?
- That’s it! Thank you very much. A picture is a thousand words.
Gary
