Possible GDX target around 24 to meet the recent trendline over next 3-4 days… Which would coincide with a price of 24 for DUST at which point the GDX will show an RSI around 88 and gold topping around $1240. At which point(if that actually happens) i’ll pile into DUST, while at the same time we will start to see the over bullish comments reappear.
https://invst.ly/3xyay
- On the other hand looking at the gold daily, the stoch and MACD only just beginning to turn up from oversold. $1240 could be quite a conservative target. We’ll see……
- By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible. Forget that triangle. It is just a minor pattern within a larger trade. Good for one more bounce at best, it is destined to break lower when it terminates, not break out as the wild eyed optimist bulls keep saying. Gold and silver will continue to offer excellent short opportunities this year but will be a real screw-fest for the hardcore bugs who have been getting splattered on the windshield for 6 long years already. I still expect gold to retest its 1040 lows of December 2015 before this is all over with a good possibility we don’t get a final bottom in gold until the middle 900 hundreds. There is a worst case scenario of gold going all the way into the low 800’s that should challenge even the most hardened of the bears.
- As I said i’ll get into dust at 24(hopefully). The triangle says a test at $1180 if it breaks then maybe lower but the weekly rsi has already reached oversold, yes the stoch and MACD have to catch up. So $1180 would tie in nicely for a bottom(temporary). So what are you basing $1040 and lower on.Weekly. RSI showing oversold, stoch and macd need to catch up“…By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible.”All very well saying that, its a very bold statement, but you need to show why. Where are your charts? You expect gold to test the December lows….Why?” bulls will have been slammed”Maybe:-)
- Seriously DDay? I have written hundreds of posts and linked charts too many times to mention on this topic since last January. You aren’t new here so I’m pretty sure you read some of them already.
- OK, sorry that was not a good answer. What we have just seen with gold during 2016 and 2017 is a severely left translated double-top. That is to say the top of 2016 and the recent peak of 2017 are a pair in a way similar to the two peaks we saw in 2011 and 2012. Furthermore they are on the exact same angle as each other. The peaks of 2011 and 2012 led to a devastating crash in the price of gold and I expect this more recent pair to also yield a very substantial decline. This is not over by a long shot. All rallies should be sold along the way. The chart as it now stands is extremely dangerous to anybody holding long positions (in my opinion naturally).We will have a conclusive answer to this whole bull market/ bear market debate this year and I am pretty certain my viewpoint is going to prevail by the time its all over. And that’s the same day we will see who was swimming without trunks all along (bullshitting everyone in other words).
- Basically, once we break down below 1200 we could see gold crash.
- So much bearishness on here. Everyone expects more down side and many expect more WAY down. Still expecting my theory to play out. Too many shorts, too many sideline sitters, too many expecting significant drop, it’s all set up to have a lot of fuel to propel a face ripper up move.While I am prepared for Peds scenario, I expect an upwards launch.I looked at 2008-2010 and the stoch barely touched 20 in nearly a year and overbought price extremes were nothing like this now. Tame in comparison. If we did bottom then you can start to see the formation of an upward channel that allows the next leg to hit 1400’s.Open to ridicule over this one.
- Its a fair point, the stoch and rsi could bounce from here and $1220 could have been the low, I think if the macd crosses then we could potentially have at least a few more weeks of downside, using the stoch alone isn’t really enough in my opinion, more a combination ie stoch together with MACD. Its all speculation and educated guesses at the end of the day. I would say that on a chart stretching that far back a drop to $1180 would be hardly noticeable.
- I think Gary would argue that the points you have shown show DCL’s wheras ICL corrections need to be much deeper. But I don’t understand cycles enough, so I would be interested in his opinion…
- OK, where are they in that 2008-11 channel?
- I did not look at RSI so maybe the story lies there?
- 2008-2011 was post crash .Are we currently at the same point?……
- Well, that’s the million dollar question. Definitely a bull then, may or may not be a bull now. If it is a bull we need to get into some form of up channel, that’s all I was showing. Similar symetry and a channel could be forming now if we bounce soon. More down side does not really set up a channel.
- Every article I read, nearly every post here all expects to wait for the summer. Can it be that easy?
- It’s nice to bet against the norm, May/June is considered seasonally weak for gold…. But again it could be different this year. Being a contrarian sometimes works, but on the whole doesn’t ,just look at SM shorters…..
- For sure. If everyone thinks the same thing will happen, seems like an easy move. Never thought the market likes to yield easy money. I guess the SM is proving maybe it is easy money.
- You are trying to extrapolate sentiment from what you see on the internet. Your bias is to read what catches your attention. Then you come up with what you assume is extreme sentiment levels.Actual sentiment:
Intermediate degree sentiment for gold = 43% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 35%Intermediate degree sentiment for silver = 39% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 30% bulls.Short term sentiment got too bearish and the metals needed a bounce out of a DCL. But this isn’t over yet. Either gold needs to have another leg down before this daily cycle bottoms, or it will require another left translated cycle after this one.All ICL’s form as at least an ABC correction or a failed daily cycle. Neither has occurred yet.
- Look at the stochastics on your chart. Notice where it’s at during an ICL. Now look at where it’s at presently.
- Of course Boss, there will always be rally’s within the trend. That’s where the money is made. But the primary trend is down and breakouts above 1300, 1400 and 1500 have been completely ruled out by my charting until the *real* bottom gets hit.
- Stock markets have stalled. I don’t know if any of you have noticed that yet. But since the Nikkei hit 20,000 on the 9th it has been unable to break through higher and instead is gently turning lower. Almost all markets are doing the same as I surmised so there is indeed resistance here but nothing more serious has yet materialized. If we do get a decline it should begin next week. As an aside, the NYSE is 225 years old on May 17th. That might be a good day to start a minor correction.
- Back to your point about 2011/2012, good points, and the 2013 low was much higher than the 2012 low. I would ask Gary how does that differ from today’s setup? Looking back didn’t the higher yearly low also indicate a bull market at the beginning of 2013?
- sorry 2012 finish higher than 2011 finish.
Gary