2011年5月16日 星期一

A TALE OF TWO MARKETS [achieve]

The next big trending move will occur in the energy markets. All the technical and cyclical signs are in place to suggest a major bottom is forming. In the precious metals market we have the exact opposite setup. This video will clarify how these two markets are likely to behave in the next several months.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSj10n8jlgg
zkotpen
For as much as people talk about some Black Swan they’re anxiously awaiting, it has already happened: BitCoin. The proof is mathematical.
I’m just watching what looks like a countertrend bounce — 12% in 32 hours?
Isn’t that the kind of volatility we’re looking for in the miners? Only, unlike metals, it’s a market that’s actually trending. And even if the main part of the rise is complete, the volatility remains interesting.
Now, of course… what is the best vehicle to trade it?
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  1. Pedestrian
    You mean to sell it I assume. That sucker is on the verge of crashing. Its get the hell out of Dodge time for Bitcoin owners because she’s going down hard.
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      1. Pedestrian
        The chart structure warns of a serious price drop and because it has recently had a near vertical rise. It does not mean it cannot go higher yet but just be warned the signs are present for a potentially steep decline. You want to be on guard whenever you see a chart displaying certain characteristics that are commonly seen before a blow off top. Timing the top is never easy however but looks inevitable to me.
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    2. zbigkid
      It is ! The problem is, that nobody comprehends how blockchain structure, and the electronic mechanisms for trading leave it incredibly vulnerable to completely seizing up (i.e. all your so called value is permanently and forever locked, and can’t be converted to dollars or anything), or it can go down in price way faster than any other traded asset on the planet. The energy involved and bandwidth and capacity to mine it, is way beyond what anyone is imagining, and it will NEVER be suitable for the masses. Right now its going up merely on very small number of people actually using it compared to other mature currencies or metals or commodities. It truly has no more ‘worth’ than any fiat currency, and probably way more vulnerable bc there isn’t even a government or sovereign or any deep pockets backing it. Essentially if you tried to chart beanie babies back when they were in such demand and assigned prices to each one’s value, it would like Bitcoin’s chart does today. Now you can’t even give beany babies away. Same thing is going to happen, because Bitcoin’s inherent flaw is actually that its constructed using math that no one understands, and consumes infinitely more energy to produce and keep trading as the number of transactions increases. The cost of making pennies, or coins does not do that, the more you make of them, and nor does the cost of mining gold. It rises over time, but its gradual and not based on a flawed digital formula.
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  2. Marc
    The problem with bitcoin is too much volatility. No one wants to buy things in a currency that fluctuates that much…unless you’re buying contraband I suppose. Bitcoin needs to get some respect as a currency not as a mojo trading vehicle.

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Right strategy…wrong market [achieve]

“you have to get on board now or risk getting left at the station”
How many times have we heard gold bugs use this as an excuse to buy into a declining market?
They have the strategy right, they are just looking at the wrong market. One doesn’t get left behind in a market that is correcting and holding below a declining 200 DMA. The world never just all of a sudden wakes up and decides hey we need to pile into a stagnated or declining market. That’s not the way human emotions work.
Humans are herd animals. We follow the crowd. It’s the reason why bubbles form. There are only two times one ever has to worry about getting left at the station. One is during a baby bull. We already had the baby bull rally in gold so there’s no risk of missing that again.
The other time one has risk of getting left at the station is during the final bubble phase of a bull market. This is the other period when price can just keep ramping higher and higher, going much further than anyone originally anticipates.
Yes traders have risk of getting left at the station, but the risk is in the stock market not the stagnated gold market. In this weekends report I’m going to cover the psychology that drives a bubble because we are in the initial stages of one right now. This is your second opportunity to make an insane amount of money very quickly. This time it’s in the stock market. If you missed the baby bull in gold, don’t miss this one.






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pk
Gary, I know this post is about the s&p but I wanted to run a scenario I am tracking in gold which I believe you somewhat alluded to as a possibility. Gold seems to be in a bear flag on the hourly. I am looking for it to roll over next week (instead of a continued bounce) and head slightly below the March low but not much further (1185-1190). The miners, instead of getting smashed, I’m looking to make a slightly lower low than this last one and that being the area where they begin their next rally. Is this a possibility for you?
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  1. GaryPost author
    Possible but not very likely IMO. I think the S&P is getting ready to breakout of the 2 1/2 month consolidation soon. When it does we’re going to get another big rally in stocks and that will put pressure on gold sending it down into the left translated cycle and at least a test of the triangle trend line.
    We need deeper sentiment readings and the commercials need to cover a lot more shorts before gold will be ready for the next sustained rally.
    I keep telling people this but no one ever listens to me at ICL’s. The big potential right now is in energy stocks.
    Of course everyone will miss this one just like they missed the bottom in gold last Dec. and the top in gold three weeks ago. I try to warn people ahead of time but they never listen.
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    1. Robert
      You might be right again but u and anyone who bought Dust will be in a world of hurt if gold continues to rally. Dust is already down 20 % + since the gdx bottomed. It could go down another 10-15% easily. By the time it turns around and rallies will the stress be worth it? It prbly won’t even gain that much due to the decay
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      1. GaryPost author
        Gold is not going to continue up and up. Gold is doing exactly what I said it would do. It’s delivering a dead cat bounce and suckering in everyone to drag them down into the final yearly cycle low.
        Gold will rally for 5-8 days and then decline for the next 20-30 while the stock market produces it’s next leg up.
        I’ll say it again. This is your chance to exit if you got caught at the top.
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    2. waverider
      Gary
      We’re not going to listen to you till you stop telling us we never listen to you. Worked on my kids. Love you playing the short side nowadays.
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      1. GaryPost author
        🙂
        Normally I never bother with shorts, but in this instance I think the banks are going to try to run the stops below the December lows so I think we’ve got a little insurance.
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THE PENDULUM STILL HAS FURTHER TO SWING [achieve]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w40s7FFHxp0


Dday
Possible GDX target around 24 to meet the recent trendline over next 3-4 days… Which would coincide with a price of 24 for DUST at which point the GDX will show an RSI around 88 and gold topping around $1240. At which point(if that actually happens) i’ll pile into DUST, while at the same time we will start to see the over bullish comments reappear.
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  2. Pedestrian
    By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible. Forget that triangle. It is just a minor pattern within a larger trade. Good for one more bounce at best, it is destined to break lower when it terminates, not break out as the wild eyed optimist bulls keep saying. Gold and silver will continue to offer excellent short opportunities this year but will be a real screw-fest for the hardcore bugs who have been getting splattered on the windshield for 6 long years already. I still expect gold to retest its 1040 lows of December 2015 before this is all over with a good possibility we don’t get a final bottom in gold until the middle 900 hundreds. There is a worst case scenario of gold going all the way into the low 800’s that should challenge even the most hardened of the bears.
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    1. Dday
      As I said i’ll get into dust at 24(hopefully). The triangle says a test at $1180 if it breaks then maybe lower but the weekly rsi has already reached oversold, yes the stoch and MACD have to catch up. So $1180 would tie in nicely for a bottom(temporary). So what are you basing $1040 and lower on.
      Weekly. RSI showing oversold, stoch and macd need to catch up
      “…By the time this summer is over the bulls will have been slammed to the pavement because the move down is going to go a lot bloodier than any of them suspect is possible.”
      All very well saying that, its a very bold statement, but you need to show why. Where are your charts? You expect gold to test the December lows….Why?
      ” bulls will have been slammed”
      Maybe:-)
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      1. Pedestrian
        Seriously DDay? I have written hundreds of posts and linked charts too many times to mention on this topic since last January. You aren’t new here so I’m pretty sure you read some of them already.
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      2. Pedestrian
        OK, sorry that was not a good answer. What we have just seen with gold during 2016 and 2017 is a severely left translated double-top. That is to say the top of 2016 and the recent peak of 2017 are a pair in a way similar to the two peaks we saw in 2011 and 2012. Furthermore they are on the exact same angle as each other. The peaks of 2011 and 2012 led to a devastating crash in the price of gold and I expect this more recent pair to also yield a very substantial decline. This is not over by a long shot. All rallies should be sold along the way. The chart as it now stands is extremely dangerous to anybody holding long positions (in my opinion naturally).
        We will have a conclusive answer to this whole bull market/ bear market debate this year and I am pretty certain my viewpoint is going to prevail by the time its all over. And that’s the same day we will see who was swimming without trunks all along (bullshitting everyone in other words).
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    2. dboz
      So much bearishness on here. Everyone expects more down side and many expect more WAY down. Still expecting my theory to play out. Too many shorts, too many sideline sitters, too many expecting significant drop, it’s all set up to have a lot of fuel to propel a face ripper up move.
      While I am prepared for Peds scenario, I expect an upwards launch.
      I looked at 2008-2010 and the stoch barely touched 20 in nearly a year and overbought price extremes were nothing like this now. Tame in comparison. If we did bottom then you can start to see the formation of an upward channel that allows the next leg to hit 1400’s.
      Open to ridicule over this one.
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      1. Dday
        Its a fair point, the stoch and rsi could bounce from here and $1220 could have been the low, I think if the macd crosses then we could potentially have at least a few more weeks of downside, using the stoch alone isn’t really enough in my opinion, more a combination ie stoch together with MACD. Its all speculation and educated guesses at the end of the day. I would say that on a chart stretching that far back a drop to $1180 would be hardly noticeable.
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        1. Dday
          I think Gary would argue that the points you have shown show DCL’s wheras ICL corrections need to be much deeper. But I don’t understand cycles enough, so I would be interested in his opinion…
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            3. dboz
              Well, that’s the million dollar question. Definitely a bull then, may or may not be a bull now. If it is a bull we need to get into some form of up channel, that’s all I was showing. Similar symetry and a channel could be forming now if we bounce soon. More down side does not really set up a channel.
        1. Dday
          It’s nice to bet against the norm, May/June is considered seasonally weak for gold…. But again it could be different this year. Being a contrarian sometimes works, but on the whole doesn’t ,just look at SM shorters…..
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          1. dboz
            For sure. If everyone thinks the same thing will happen, seems like an easy move. Never thought the market likes to yield easy money. I guess the SM is proving maybe it is easy money.
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        2. GaryPost author
          You are trying to extrapolate sentiment from what you see on the internet. Your bias is to read what catches your attention. Then you come up with what you assume is extreme sentiment levels.
          Actual sentiment:
          Intermediate degree sentiment for gold = 43% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 35%
          Intermediate degree sentiment for silver = 39% bulls. At intermediate cycle lows it’s usually below 30% bulls.
          Short term sentiment got too bearish and the metals needed a bounce out of a DCL. But this isn’t over yet. Either gold needs to have another leg down before this daily cycle bottoms, or it will require another left translated cycle after this one.
          All ICL’s form as at least an ABC correction or a failed daily cycle. Neither has occurred yet.
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      4. Pedestrian
        Of course Boss, there will always be rally’s within the trend. That’s where the money is made. But the primary trend is down and breakouts above 1300, 1400 and 1500 have been completely ruled out by my charting until the *real* bottom gets hit.
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    3. Pedestrian
      Stock markets have stalled. I don’t know if any of you have noticed that yet. But since the Nikkei hit 20,000 on the 9th it has been unable to break through higher and instead is gently turning lower. Almost all markets are doing the same as I surmised so there is indeed resistance here but nothing more serious has yet materialized. If we do get a decline it should begin next week. As an aside, the NYSE is 225 years old on May 17th. That might be a good day to start a minor correction.
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      1. Dday
        Back to your point about 2011/2012, good points, and the 2013 low was much higher than the 2012 low. I would ask Gary how does that differ from today’s setup? Looking back didn’t the higher yearly low also indicate a bull market at the beginning of 2013?
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