2011年5月16日 星期一

WHY THIS IS A NEW BULL MARKET IN GOLD [achieve]

This video provides a comprehensive discussion of why gold is in a new bull market. The price action of a bull market is discussed. The intricacies of cycle analysis is provided.

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5g25mrcevo
Gary and Pedestrian,
(from previous thread)
I’m gonna have to thank both of you guys again, this time thanks for the insistence on those trendlines which are fated to be broken.
You think you’re arguing, but you’re not even arguing. Being an Economist (on the one hand… on the other hand…), I play out BOTH of your “arguments” SIMULTANEOUSLY in my mind, but in the ABSENCE of attack and defend strategies, which are interpersonal and largely ignored by the market.
(Hint: The power of paradox!… close kin to intuition.)
SUPERCYCLE degree bear market: 2011 until sometime in the mid-2020s. BEAR market still in progress.
CYCLE degree bear market: 2011-2015. Past bear market, one degree smaller than the above.
CYCLE degree rally: 2015 until around 2019 or 2020. RALLY still in progress. Likely triangle or some sort of flat correction (multi-year consolidation).
CYCLE degree final bear: 2019/20 until sometime in the mid-2020s. Future bear market, within an even larger bear market — scary — think 2013!
At any rate, you’ve caused me to re-evaluate my settings for analysis at the cycle degree of trend, such that all key inflection points make mathematical sense: April & June, 2013; March, July, and December, 2015; July, 2016.
Of course, in that context the December, 2016, low does NOT make sense. That’s because it’s one degree lower. The PRIMARY (Yearly) move down since July, 2016 appears as an INCOMPLETE double zig zag.
PRIMARY wave B target using new settings: Around 1075-80, for now, though I don’t see it changing too much in the coming months.



zkotpen
Ped,
You were wondering whether the market thinks about what happened 200 weeks ago…
It is keenly aware of it, at some degree or other. The gold market is very aware of the fact that the CPI was at 100 in the early 1980s and now its around 250, at some degree or other. It is also aware that the CPI was around 10 in 1913. It is also aware of the value of the 5 golden guineas Ben Franklin, pictured on the $100 note, gave to charity in mid-18th century British Philadelphia. It is also aware that a plot of farm land in Tibet was sold for 7 ounces of gold in the 12th century. It is aware of the entire history of the value of gold, all over the world.
All past, present, and future enter one time frame;
one time frame enters all past, present, and future.
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  1. Pedestrian
    Zkot, I was not wondering at all.
    My post was pointing out how the moving averages are calculated. So what happened 200 weeks ago plus what the weekly close of 199 weeks ago plus that of 198 weeks ago are all embodied in the current MA price line. Moving averages cannot be forward looking when they are factually based on past activity. That is why golden crosses and death crosses are such useless tools for reading charts. They do however come in handy for creating support and resistance lines but even that is only because of the weight accorded them by so many investors and how the algo’s get programmed. You should never use them for forecasting though.

KHT
For Ped-Here is the updated chart with the lower trend line drawn. I was originally curious to see what the top line would show and just drew parallel lines to form a channel, however, the lower line drawn the way you suggested does make a strong point. Whether one agrees or not with this chart which has five points on the top line and four on the bottom, the trend is down until the top resistance line is broken. That is a fact.
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  1. Pedestrian
    Yes it is KHT, the trend is unconditionally down until further notice.
    Thanks again for creating the chart to help us out today.
    What we are looking at with your redraw is a classic falling wedge pattern. It is a VERY easy chart to read and makes the outcome for gold and the mining sector quite predictable even if we cannot precisely time the coming breakout using that pattern.
    Take a look at this article with charts I have linked below and you will see the beautiful similarity of the gold bear market chart and the classic falling wedge pattern. I think this is conclusive and ends the debate on the topic but of course the fanatics and zealots in the room can never be persuaded no matter what evidence is provided.
    ———————————–
    Falling Wedge Pattern (reversal). Lets not complicate this people!!! Gold is EASY to read if you stay objective.
    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal
    ———————————–
    When viewed this way we do not need to make many assumptions about the future, where cycles should start or end or how it relates to the CRB Index. This chart is what it is. We will just have to let the bear play out until the chart finds its bottom and then plan for the bounce that inevitably will come.
    We have NOT had the bull market breakout or bounce yet though!….. Not a damned chance in a hundred.
    We have ONLY seen a bear market rally in 2016 that was repelled perfectly at its channel resistance. And then to seal the case, gold was again repelled at resistance in 2017 for confirmation. There is no longer any doubt about the pattern in play here and we should now anticipate that price will fall back to its lower channel line.
    And yes, that is really bad news if you are a bull but I don’t make the rules so this is not just my opinion you are hearing. The chart set-up is damning. It is without question extremely bearish right now. So we should not fool ourselves into believing any nonsense about this being a bull market unless we are prepared to accept considerable losses playing this thing as something it is not.
    If you go Old Turkey on this bear you are going to be roasted, basted and fried black before its all over.
    You could even go broke, so be very careful who you listen too.
    I keep telling the crowd here that the correct way to play this kind of market is to sell on strength and sell every rally. You NEVER hold anything too long during a decline but rather play the support and resistance lines strategically to benefit from the predictable rise and fall of prices within the declining pattern. You don’t need to be a genius to do it either.
    It is not a complex strategy and it is not difficult to execute if you are careful.
    For example, I am 100% out of the metals market at this time since I am not sure how low prices will fall before bottoming. But I am prepared to re-enter in force as soon as I can determine a solid entry and then play the next bounce for all its worth. What I am NOT DOING is trying to buy miners just because they look cheap.
    Things that are down can always fall lower during a bear and it is a rare person who is able to know where those bottoms lie as they are part of the future unknown. My advice (especially to the novices in the room for whom I am really writing) is to take care heeding what the bull crowd keeps repeating and to just concentrate on the simple obvious truth of the pattern you are looking at.
    And don’t ever be sucked into complicated ideas of why gold should do this or the other thing because those rationalizations will only lead to losses. If you see an easy trade pattern in development then just work with it instead of fighting the trend.
    This multi-year bear market in gold offers us an easy path to superb milk-fattened profits if we just allow ourselves to understand the dynamics that are in play and to be patient and plan accordingly. Now is the time to raise cash by strategically investing for short term gains so that when the real bull begins we are well fortified to invest heavily at the real bottom.
    And be sure to set aside the ideas that gold MUST have hit bottom already because of an 8 year or a 7 year cycle. For anyone not paying attention, we are in the midst of an unprecedented stock market bull that is destined to be the longest in the history of the stock market.
    By definition that means the gold bear market is going to be stretched for as long as it takes the equity bull to bubble and perk and blow its top. I don’t know when the DOW will finally have its Waterloo and neither does anyone else but what I do know is that metals cannot perform well as long as it persists. You younger gold investors need to hear this alternate viewpoint so at least you can make an informed decision about your trades.
    The gold chart says prices are going to fall lower…………… A LOT LOWER.
    The chart of the falling wedge pattern under discussion leaves very little room for doubt.
    So if you don’t know what you are doing I advise you to just stay the hell out of this market until it hits bottom.
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CHART OF THE DAY – TRIANGLE [archive]



  1. Pedestrian
    Precisely KHT. I have made the same comment here a hundred times referencing the exact same chart (except I never actually draw the charts since I can’t be bothered). Almost nobody here will listen though. But the upper channel is pretty convincing since it amounts to a 6 year cap on the gold price and every year the price can only be lower since the line is descending. Gold has never once broken to the topside of that upper rail yet. Until it does this is unequivocally a bear and surprises will be to the downside.
    Since you are a good chart artist maybe you can convince Gary.
    BTW, I am sure you noticed there is a problem with the bottom rail on your chart diagram. I would have drawn that differently. Gold is actually falling into a narrowing wedge. Try that instead and you will get a better idea of the terminus. But try not to scare anyone. Some people on this site just can’t handle the facts.
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    1. Pedestrian
      Gary, you really need to look closely at that chart that KHT has made. You have been calling this market a bull since December of 2015 and all that bull market of yours has achieved since then is to confirm the upper channel boundary.
      This is still a BEAR MARKET for cripes sake!!! All your people need to click on the link above.
      How can you not see the problem with your analysis when its staring you right in the face so obviously? Don’t you ever wonder why your price and trend expectations are being frustrated again and again? And lastly, what is it going to take before you do a little reassessment of your position?
      Maybe I should have drawn this chart myself back when I first began talking about it in 2016. At that time, when we failed at resistance I knew gold was doomed for another cycle down and warned everyone here to get out of its way.
      And I was 100% correct.
      When we failed at resistance again in April I repeated the warning and just the other day I pointed out that the two peaks in 2016 and 2017 amount to little more than a double top along a falling channel line.
      In other words, a VERY left translated double top. Not so unlike the pair of peaks that we saw back in 2011 and 2012 and we all know how that turned out when gold crashed in 2013 (its right on the chart man. Just take a look).
      So forget all that nonsense about higher-highs and higher lows. You are using a shorter term chart that has no perspective. To get the whole picture you need a monthly just as KHT has used and then it all becomes crystal clear.
      People…..study this chart!
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      1. GaryPost author
        Maybe you don’t understand.
        I use different tools than you do. My tools will spot the beginning of a bull market long before yours give you confirmation.
        Your channels will have a very long lag time before signalling a new bull market.
        Mine will tell me it’s a new bull market very soon after it has begun, and many months before a channel breakout and you get confirmation.
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        1. Pedestrian
          Gary, that makes no sense. If that exact same chart above was an hourly (instead of a monthly) and you were a day-trader I can absolutely guarantee you would not be trading it with a bullish bias until it gave a signal that it was breaking out of the channel or marking a clear bottom.
          Your system does not work because those kinds of systems never work successfully. All you divined by reading sentiment indicators was that the majority were on the wrong side of the trade betting on a new bull market. Most people left their gains on the table and rode that so-called bull right back to the bottom and have been kicking themselves ever since.
          They saw fantastic profits and then let it all slip away.
        2. GaryPost author
          I guess since my system doesn’t work then I was only imagining calling the bottom in Dec. when everyone else was bearish, and all the profits we made from that two month rally are also imaginary.
          And since my system doesn’t work I guess I was just imagining calling the top almost to the day 3 weeks ago when you were looking for a rally to 1320. And again all the profits we’ve made on the short side are imaginary.
          There’s more than just sentiment to calling the final bear market low. A bear market low has to occur at a yearly cycle low. One of those occurred in December of 2015. A bear market low also has to occur at an 8 year cycle low (the last one came in 2008). That next one was due between 2015 and 2017 (they can stretch or shrink a bit).
          The reason I think the 8 YCL low occurred a little early is because the CRB was due for a 3 YCL in 2016 and it’s unlikely that the multi year gold cycle would stretch a year or more past the CRB cycle. So the odds are very high that gold’s 8 YCL occurred in December of 2015.
          So unless the bear market is going to stretch out another entire 8 year cycle (not likely) then it had to have occurred in December of 2015.
          There’s more than one way to skin a cat and there’s certainly better ways to call a bear market bottom than waiting months or even years for a channel breakout. That kind of signal has way too much lag to be of much use.
        3. Pedestrian
          You know what KHT?
          You should scare the crap out of the bugs and draw that lower channel on your chart. It projects down to around 825 sometime in 2019 which seems about right to me since that’s about when this exceptional bull market in equities will likely end if you listen to M. Armstrong.
          Around that time we all need to be the hell out of public debt of all kinds, most real estate and even the stock market since the wheels are going to come off the wagon with an epic sovereign default cycle which will be extraordinarily deflationary.
          And we should be so thoroughly disenchanted with governments at all levels and disgusted by all the losses we are taking in traditional investments by then that we are ready to hold physical precious metals again as a last resort to all the deprivations, confiscation and heavy taxation.
          Marty always said the real purpose of gold was in response to the greed of governments and lost confidence in the system. When the real shit-show starts our pensions will be evaporating and everyone unprepared will be forced to live on tiny hand-outs and stipends which will represent the last fragments of our retirement dreams.
          Banks, insurance and pension companies will all be going tits-up when that happens.
          When the old Soviet Union collapsed so did all their retirement schemes. Few know about that harsh period in history but the internal defaults against the general public were exceptionally painful. Pension benefits dropped as low as 20 bucks a month and the economy went into a serious depression as the empire simply ran out of money and everything ground to a halt.
          Nobody believes that will happen in the West. And yet we all accept that the debt burden carried in the developed market countries is equally unsustainable and can never be paid. Well if it can’t be paid then that means just one of two things.
          Either we enter a depression that is extremely serious as capital withers and asset values plummet or two, we are faced with a period of inflation so extreme that nobody can really tell the difference between that event and an actual depression.
          Lets be honest, what is really the difference between having a pocket filled with lint instead of cash and one that is bursting to the seams with money you can’t buy a cheap pack of smokes with? Whether inflation or deflation, the feeling is the same….we will all be a lot poorer when the chickens finally come home to roost.
          On a positive note, real money will have a place again. But sadly it will be during a period of hardship such that most here will hardly be able to enjoy the benefits. So go ahead, draw that lower rail on your chart so everyone can see where we are really heading with gold in the next couple years.
          And remember, in a bear market surprise are to the downside!
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CHART OF THE DAY – FALSE REVERSAL? [archeive]


Pedestrian
No big action until Monday at the earliest. We need a weekend catalyst as usual. This is just basing and consolidation.

Pedestrian
If you watch the hourly platinum chart you can see it will probably take Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to set-up the base for a bounce. For some reason its easier to read than gold and silver at turns so the platinum chart comes in very handy. Keep your eyes on it. When plat moves up gold won’t be far behind.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL&p=h1

  1. dboz
    Time for a curve ball. The PM market is patterned. Good chart Gary, maybe this is the time it does not do this to fake the sideline sitters out. This is where it gets tough for sideline sitters. Do you sit and think a deeper pullback is coming? Or does it take off and just keep rising? For us OLD TURKEY holders, this is a nice surprise today. No need to try to time it. The only decision will be if we should sell after a bounce and possible deeper fall.
    Plenty of time to get long for sure but it is always hard to pull the trigger at the bottom as everyone always expects lower. Time will tell where we go.
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  2. Pedestrian
    Copper is also smack-dab on the bottom of its channel and ready to move up with other commodities.
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=HG
    That should be good news for TECK fans. But here’s a little warning. If you trace out the channels on TECK using the bottoms as your giude what you will see is that the top is a Head-and-Shoulders pattern rather than a double top as suggested by the FINVIZ chart.
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=teck
    That can only mean that any potential bounce coming in copper will not be significant if the H&S is to remain valid. So buy it with caution in mind and consideration that all the metals may have no more than a feeble relief rally in store.
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    1. GaryPost author
      It does look like a DCL in miners. But I doubt we have a final ICL yet. Sentiment isn’t bearish enough.
      I’m going to say stocks drop down into a DCL and metals rally over the next 5-8 days. Then the longer term trends resume with the final ICL coming in mid to late June.
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THE ELECTION TRIGGER APPEARS TO HAVE FAILED TO COMPLETE A DAILY CYCLE LOW [archieve]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODbCJP2xmtc


Pedestrian
The only satisfaction I get from reading your foolish daily comments is that I know you were heavily long miners all through this decline and are nursing heavy losses. Because it is a bear market. You will learn that better by reading your monthly statements.

Pedestrian
Yup, and as far as higher-highs and higher-lows on the mining charts, well that was already busted in the past few days if the GDX daily chart is our guide. We now have a situation where the May lows have dropped below the March lows and the pattern for the year is a rather common double-top where the April high was unable to exceed the February high. This has trouble written all over it and is most assuredly not bullish unless our idea of bullish is for GDX to retest the December lows.
(at which point we might hope for a decent rally).
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  1. Pedestrian
    GDXJ meanwhile has suffered a category 4 hurricane decline and looks to be strongly attracted to its December 2016 lows at this time. A break below that key support and its look out below boys!
    We are just waiting for the HUI to follow and also fail when reaching its March lows to put that really bearish icing on the cake for the whole precious metals mining sector. That can’t be too far off if the yen/$ keeps falling.
    Nikkei meanwhile has hit 20,000 btw (futures) so lets see if that will be repulsed down from resistance or just be a pit stop before new highs are made. This is the only thing that matters right now. If Japanese indices don’t stop going up its going to be an ugly, ugly summer for everyone in metals.
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  2. GaryPost author
    There’s nothing unusual about that. That’s what happens during an intermediate cycle decline. At least one daily cycle will make a lower low. Stair stepping down so to speak.
    Unless gold breaks below the larger yearly cycle low (December) there is no indication that this is anything other than a basing pattern in a larger bull market.
    As I’ve said over and over, until the stock market bubble pops it’s going to be hard for the metals to gain a lot of traction. While there is free money to be had in stocks there isn’t going to be a lot of motivation to buy gold. So it’s going to stay stuck in the basing pattern for awhile. Maybe the rest of the year.
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    1. Pedestrian
      I am very sorry but I cannot agree with you Gary.
      There is not one chance in a hundred this is a bull market in precious metals or mining stock. I think almost every person who comes to this site will attest to that after reviewing their own broker statements. During a real bear market (like we have) even the pros get caught and lose money sometimes. That is happening right now.
      But during a genuine bull though even retards and monkeys with darts make profit when all boats float at once.
      We are not there yet.
    3. Pedestrian
      Well if a basing pattern destroys your account then we need a new word for what is happening since splitting hairs over what to call this market is hardly doing justice to what it means in the real world where the HUI sports what looks like a great big, fat double-top for the first five months of this year suggesting its going all the way back to its lows.
      That’s hardly a bullish liftoff.
      In a *real* bull market you can hold and not worry. Do you have that confidence after all the recent declines? Of course not. Even you are saying to stay out of the metals market and wait if you are unable to trade the short side.
      And look at the poor saps who bought JNUG as it has plummeted some 70% this year, been share-split and then kept on falling! You have got to stop calling this a bull market since it leads people to believe those devastated positions will be rescued in a bounce.
      They will NEVER be rescued though. Not after a reverse share split.
    4. GaryPost author
      Miners are a long way above the 2015 low. It’s still a bull market.
      Like I said, it’s going to take time to turn the 200 week moving average back up.
    5. Pedestrian
      Is the price of 200 weeks ago important? How about the price 199 weeks ago and that of 198 weeks ago? What I am saying is that its historical prices that are moving the MA’s today and if metals keep falling then the 200 week MA will just keep falling too (not get pushed anywhere). So it is not just time that matters. It is time AND price. Gold must rise or the MA isn’t going anywhere favourable.
      That indicator is worthless for reading the future.

dboz
Sounds good. If we can never go up with lots of bulls, how is it ever going to be possible to go up without them? I have to realize that we are in a bear market in PMs.
Having seen crytocurrencies get flooded with 80 billion dollars in a month, its more than likely people have simply left the PM sector for greener, non manipulated pastures. Bitcoin is up nearly 1000 out of November 2016. Stays overbought for weeks. Oversold conditions last a few days then right back to overbought. All bulls, no problem going up massively. Gold can barely even get to over bought. Silver struggles to even take a bounce out of oversold.
There is no money in this sector. No reason to believe PMs are bullish. If we have to keep going down and down and down retracing 70% or more each time and then failing to ever get to a new high, really seeing that we are not in a bull. As soon as any gains are made, everyone sells and landslide losses occur.
If you don’t build heading up, you can’t buy the dips, you don’t make higher highs and keep ending up back at the bottom, what is possibly going to allow any upside?
All you are saying is wait for the cellar, play the bounce and then time to bail and wait for another massive down side reset. So yes, traders are doing good. People invested back early in 2016 and have been smashed ruthlessly at every turn. Every dip buy is a loser. Massive loser. We break at every support level.
Just saying, capitulation is nearing. Over a year of losing for many. Losing Bigly. Having to sell long positions and wait for a collapse to rebuy does not sound bullish.
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  1. Dday
    No, No, No……. What Gary has been saying for a while now is gold is in a bottoming pattern/triangle and will bounce around for a while yet. Next downside target I would say is $1178. So yes at the moment gold/miners suck if you are long but that will change at some point, and yes if invested in Tripple ets thas a monumental loss. If bought high near the top it really sucks, but the pattern technicals were saying don’t buy. Emotional trading, gold can only go on up at the top , now it can only go down as it continues falling…. Heres the weekly chart. The good news is the RSI has fallen quite considerably but still got quite a way to go, macd only just crossing and stoch at neutral…
     ↓
  2. Pedestrian
    Sounds about right Boss. Speculator longs are indeed soured on the sector and in a selling mood while others are outright capitulating into the ongoing decline. Confidence has been badly hurt and it will take a long while before gold (and especially silver) have a chance to get momentum going again. You will know how bad it is when the next relief rally comes and instead of getting the trend going again just falls flat on its face. That’s your real sentiment indicator.
     ↓


Pedestrian
And platinum is not faring much better. At about 4am this morning it made a waterfall decline for a 15 dollar face-plant off the high board right onto bare cement. We will see if it buries itself a little deeper by going under 900 dollars today. And that’s a great reason to have stayed out of platinum stocks while the correction is still a live event.

Pedestrian
And there we go. The 1220 line on gold was just broken as I suspected would happen today while the yen decline accelerated after losing the .88 level and she is intent on going down for the count. Hard to tell right now at what support it might stop so I will avoid any inclination to buy too early.
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Pedestrian
I am using Finviz futures and gold spiked down to 1219.20 just a short while back.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=m5


  1. Pedestrian
    Yeah, anther 10 cents decline and silver will have its chops busted all over the roasting pan as 16 dollars gives way to a 15 handle. This has been quite a decline while DSLV has certainly lived up to the potential it had stored as I kept warning not so long ago. It has now risen 50% since its April bottom. I wish I had hung on longer instead of going to cash so early.
     ↓

Pedestrian
So a couple things are happening here today worth mention.
My Nikkei indicator is working thus far meaning it has been repulsed very gently near the 20,000 mark and may be ready for a corrective decline. You need to check this chart for yourself and run the channels to appreciate the idea better. What you are looking at is an expanding wedge, better known as a megaphone, that encompassed the period starting in December 2016.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=d1
If I am correct and the Nikkei begins a corrective decline here then we might reasonably expect it to fall all the way back to around 16,500 before bottoming which is in excess of a 15% decline. That is where the pattern projects to at this time.e
Without a doubt this would be a very bullish setup for a bounce in precious metals and miners so stay alert to the fact that a stock market correction will be very favorable for long trades if a market decline even roughly approximates my downside projection.
My secondary indicator (Eurostoxx50) is also flashing a resistance top and could also be setting up to decline. I like this kind of supporting evidence when it corroborates my general idea. What you should notice is that the Eurostoxx support line (monthly chart) identified by the lows of 2003 and 2009 are in perfect parallel with the current peaks of 2007 and 2017 and that means we have reached the primary resistance level.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=EX&p=m1
The DAX offers a similar support/resistance channel that you will find by checking tops and bottoms for yourself. Get your handy plastic ruler out and just trace out the lines as a quick test of validity.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DY&p=m1
As mentioned before, these patterns are not available on the US indices as there are not prior highs to work with. The assumption here though is that if Japanese and European indices decline so will US markets since most developed nations markets are moving together at this time. I don’t know if my idea is going to be valid and therefore can’t suggest what anyone should do about this other than take note and don’t be surprised if we do get an unexpected market decline.
But the main reason I am leaving this post today is simply to warn you we are here NOW.
If a correction ensues its going to get underway shortly so be on guard. Given that precious metals have been sold down hard recently and may also be at a cycle bottom, a reversal of their fortunes in conjunction with a modest stock market correction makes perfect sense. So a good buying opportunity may be presenting itself this week.
———————————————
A note to all you Tweet readers who bitch constantly about the length of my posts…..
Screw off!
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  1. jake
    Any pedant should be able to see the metals are over sold and strong hands are accumulating.
    Besides it a full moon tonight, there’s a correlation for you.
     ↓
  1. Pedestrian
    The media is reading this Comey firing entirely wrong. Those news people have obviously never known a politician very well and never been in a position to bargain or they are just grasping at straws to rationalize this event as some sort of coverup.
    Bullshit!
    Let me tell you what REALLY happened (even though I was not there).
    Comey was really hated by the Dem’s because he was seen as the key reason Hillary lost. There were very few people in their cross hairs they wanted out of government more. In fact, Mr Comey was enemy number one and Donald knew it which is why he kept him on until now.
    But don’t get misty eyed that the Donald has a weak spot or was rooting for the underdog.
    Comey was a bargaining chip plain and simple. Trump needed that guy for the right moment to be traded off for something else he needed more. And so when he ran into resistance on an issue (no idea which one) then he offered up Comey’s head to make the deal.
    And friends is how you get things done in politics.
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  2. Pedestrian
    Yen/$ is indicating an inside bullish reversal. So gold could be ready to make a move higher. The inside day is not valid until the end of the day naturally (daily chart) but becomes meaningful if its still showing at the close. VIX meanwhile is almost right on its timing target for a monthly move. We shall see what happens if the stars line up.
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  3. bluelagoon
    Looks like a DCL in gold…..which might make sense if the S&P is double topping from March at ~2400. It could be a swing high today if it drops below yesterday’s low and then below the 10 DMA. The question is – will oil continue up with gold?
    Where are you on this Alex? I’m thinking you’ll say these are temporary bounces before the final YCL.
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